“ElNio has sent heavy rains to California this year

3rd Annual Minnesota Climate Adaptation Conference Thursday

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canadian goose jacket There is no such thing as a “weather expert”. I am reminded, daily, of the depths of my ignorance. Just keeping up with emerging science, new papers, trends and breakthroughs is daunting. So much noise so little wisdom. canadian goose jacket

Canada Goose Outlet Today’s weather blog includes these nuggets: shoveling snow kills or injures an average of 11,500 Americans every winter. Good incentive to remain on the couch and wait for spring. Canada Goose Outlet

cheap Canada Goose Hurricane Hunter aircraft probed Canada Goose Parka Saturday’s mega blizzard off the East Coast, trying to “initialize” NOAA’s models with better data. Every El Nino is different; NOAA sent a fleet of planes, ships and weather balloons into the Pacific to get a better grasp on how El Nino warm phases may canada goose clearance evolve in a warming world. cheap Canada Goose

buy canada goose jacket cheap That same El Nino should, on paper, keep us milder than average into the spring. But there will be spasms of cold and snow though. buy canada goose jacket cheap

canada goose coats on sale Models hint at a sloppy southern storm brushing Minnesota with Canada Goose online a potentially plowable snowfall next Tuesday. By late next week highs may be stuck in the teens so enjoy our 5 day thaw. canada goose coats on sale

January should wind up milder than average. Again.

Why Snow Shoveling is an Unusually Deadly Type of Exercise. (Normally, cardiac problems account for around 10 percent of hospital visits, according to the Washington Post.) Another study, from 1990 to canada goose outlet 2006, found over 1,600 fatalities. Last year, New York’s JFK Airport was canadian goose jacket shut down for several hours when a Delta plane skidded off the runway into the snow. (No injuries were reported.) The problem is that while planes can be de iced (usually by spraying them with a mix of water and glycol alcohol), getting ice off a runway when the temperatures are low and there’s no sunshine is much harder. “There’s hardly anything you can do,” Jack Gartner, who worked in operations at New York airports for over 30 years, told Business Insider.”

canada goose clearance The Most Ominous Snow Forecasts for New York Were Right. So many models, so much noise, so little wisdom. We saw its perils in canada goose coats January 2015, when meteorologists wiped egg off their faces because New York City didn’t get anywhere near the foot and half or more that was forecast. This weekend, the exact opposite is happening: New York City is canada goose uk shop getting far more snow than the forecast of 7 to 12 inches from the National Weather Service, which was issued less than 24 hours before the storm hit the city.1 It’s the perfect example of why forecasts that vary canada goose uk black friday based on probability are so important, and why outlier predictions should not be dismissed.” canada goose clearance

canada goose black friday sale Photo credit above: “Pedestrians push a stroller cheap canada goose uk through heavy snow on the Upper West Side of Manhattan on Saturday morning.” Craig Ruttle / AP. (That’s why predicted snowstorms so often turn out to be rain, sleet or the dreaded “frozen mix.”) Another is the region’s rapid growth, which hasn’t been accompanied by matching improvements by the region’s District, state, county and city governments to their roads, rails and bus systems.” canada goose black friday sale

Photo credit above: “A worker with the National Park Service sweeps snow along Pennsylvania Avenue in front of the White House in Washington, Thursday, Jan. 21, 2016, after an overnight dusting of snow hit the Washington area.” AP Photo.

Hurricane Hunters Gather Forecast Data on Record Breaking Blizzard. Air Force: “The Hurricane Hunters of the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron Canada Goose Online flew a different kind of mission from Keesler Air Force Base Jan. 22 to gather data on the blizzard that hit the Eastern Seaboard. The blizzard began dropping snow on canada goose clearance sale the area early Jan. 22, and was a record setter for three cities, leaving 29.2 inches in Baltimore, 31.9 inches in canada goose coats on sale Allentown, Pennsylvania, and 34 inches in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, according to the National Weather Service. The 53rd WRS crew flew along the Canada Goose sale eastern coast from canada goose Florida up to the New York City area over the Atlantic Ocean, dropping sondes ahead of the storm to gather information and to send it back to the NWS, where forecasts and predictions are made.”

Photo credit above: “A 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron WC 130J Hercules, based at Keesler Air Force Base, Miss., flies cheap Canada Goose above the record setting blizzard the morning of Jan. 23, 2016. Air Force photo/Staff Sgt. Nicholas Monteleone)

Monster El Nino Probed by Meteorologists. Every El Nino is different NOAA researchers are using new tools and techniques to understand how El Nino warm phases in the Pacific may evolve in a warming world (and ocean). Here’s an excerpt canada goose store from Nature: “Climate scientists this week began a research blitz to study El Nio, the climate trouble maker that disrupts weather around much of the globe. For the next two months, US researchers will use specially outfitted planes, Canada Goose Coats On Sale a https://www.canadagoosejacketonlines.ca research ship and hundreds of weather balloons to monitor the region in the tropical Pacific Ocean where ElNio forms. Ultimately, the scientists say, their measurements could help to improve weather forecasts and unlock secrets about how uk canada goose outlet powerful El Nio events evolve.”

Canada Goose Jackets Photo credit above: Joel Angel Jurez/AP. “ElNio has sent heavy rains to California this year.” Canada Goose Jackets

Why January Will Be Milder Than Average. In spite of the subzero stretch 8 12 days ago we are running just under 1F colder than average, to date, in the Twin Cities. With temperatures consistently 5 10F warmer than average from today into Sunday we should end the month slightly warmer than average, overall. A clipper may kick up a sloppy mix on Friday, maybe an inch or two of slush in the Brainerd Lakes area, even plowable over the Arrowhead. The approach of significantly colder air spins up a storm next Tuesday which may result in plowable amounts of snow too early for any more specifics. Graphic: WeatherSpark.

Downhill Slide Next Week. 30s in late January? Grilling weather. Soak up the relative warmth because much colder air is brewing for the end of next week; I could see highs in single digits a week from Friday and Saturday. Source: NOAA and Aeris Enterprise.

Canada Goose Parka NOAA Models buy canada goose jacket cheap Hint at Significant Snow. 1 to 1.7″ liquid next Tuesday into Wednesday? It’s still premature barking out inch amounts (ECMWF brushes Minnesota with lesser amounts of moisture from this next storm) but there’s at least a chance canada goose factory sale of a (newscast leading, headline grabbing) storm next week. You remember snow, don’t you? Canada Goose Parka

Canada Goose sale GFS: Snowy Stripe Next Tuesday. This is a long range, nearly one week forecast, so buyer beware. A weekend clipper drops a few inches of snow on the Minnesota Arrowhead this weekend, but a moisture laden southern storm may push a shield of moderate uk canada goose snow into Minnesota next Tuesday and Wednesday. Stating the obvious: we’re due. Animation: AerisWeather. Canada Goose sale

canada goose store GFS Guidance Next Tuesday Evening. Here is the GFS solution for Tuesday evening at 7 PM, showing a deep area of low pressure centered over Oklahoma, gulping down Gulf moisture, pushing wet buy canada goose jacket snow into central and southern Minnesota. NOAA models are more impressive than ECMWF, but NAM did a great job with the blizzard last Saturday, so it’s good to keep an open mind and track all the models. Map: WSI. canada goose store

Canada Goose online Moderation Second Week of February. There’s little doubt we’ll see a numbing spell of weather around February 5 7, although I don’t believe it will get as cold as it did earlier this month. GFS 500 mb winds are forecast to be northwest the evening of February 9, with Minnesota on the eastern fringe of Pacific modified air. New England may get slammmed with a significant snowstorm. Map: GrADS:COLA/IGES. Canada Goose online

canada goose deals El Nino Signal to Linger. Here is the latest NOAA CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System) model for February and March, showing warm anomalies as much as 5 7F warmer than average for Minnesota and much of the northern USA and central Canada, a reflection of Canada Goose Jackets a potent, but fading El Nino warming signal in the Pacific. Map credit: NOAA and WeatherBell. canada goose deals

Ocean Warming Is Making Floods Worse, Study Finds. A new study blames expansion of warming waters for as much sea level rise from 2002 through 2014 as the melting of all the glaciers and the Greenland and canada goose uk outlet Antarctic ice sheets combined. “Satellite observations show that sea level rise over the last decade is explained, by about 50 percent, by thermal expansion,” said Roelof Rietbroek of the University of Bonn, who led the research, which was published Monday in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.”

buy canada goose jacket Study: Man Made Heat Put in Oceans Has Doubled Since 1997. Here’s the intro to an : “The amount of man made heat energy absorbed by the seas has doubled since 1997, a new study says. Scientists have long known that more than 90 percent of the heat energy from man made global warming goes into the world’s oceans instead of the ground. And they’ve seen ocean heat content rise in recent years. But the new study, using ocean observing data that goes back to the British research ship Challenger in the 1870s and including high tech modern underwater monitors and computer models, tracked how much man made heat has been buried in the oceans in the past 150 years.”Oceanic Warming Trend. An estimated 93% of additional heat energy produced by greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, is going into the world’s oceans. This not only results in thermal expansion and rising sea levels, but higher water vapor levels, more moisture available for developing storms, especially close to the coast. Graphic above: Larry Hamilton buy canada goose jacket.

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